本网编译：印度棉花出口将增多

本网编译：印度棉花出口将增多 India’s Cotton Shipments to Rebound as ‘Worst Over’ By Thomas Kutty AbrahamMarch 18 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton sales from India, the world’s second-biggest grower and exporter, may rebound starting June as demand for textiles revives and a weak currency makes shipments attractive, the nation’s biggest buyer of the fiber said. Exports may total 5 million bales by September, said Subhash Grover, managing director of the Cotton Corp. of India. Shipments slumped to 800,000 bales of 170 kilogram each in September-March period from 6 million bales a year earlier, he said. “The worst is over for the textiles sector,” Grover said in a telephone interview in Mumbai today. “Private textile mills are buying as demand for cotton yarn and garments seem to be picking up in India and globally.” Increased supplies from the South Asian nation may weigh on cotton prices that have fallen 43 percent in the past year in New York amid concern the global slowdown will slash demand for the commodity. Global demand will total 111.1 million bales in the year ending July, down 9.5 percent from last season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on March 11. Cotton futures for May delivery rose as much as 0.5 percent to 43.07 cents a pound on in after-hours electronic trading on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Cotton has climbed 3.2 percent so far this month. “Global production is less than last year and consumption seems to have picked up in the past 20 days or so,” Grover said. “Prices may rise to such a level in the lean season that Indian exports will become feasible.” Global output will fall to 108.65 million bales from 109.51 million bales projected in February because of smaller crops in China and Pakistan, according to the USDA. Production in the previous season was estimated to be 120.55 million bales. Weak Rupee A drop in India’s rupee may boost export prospects in the coming months, Grover said. The currency reached a record low on March 3 and has a fifth of its value in the past year as concern about a deepening global recession prompted investors to pull out funds from emerging markets in favor of safer bets. “Rupee is weakening day by day and if international cotton prices go up by 2 to 3 cents in the next two months, then larger exports will take place,” Grover said. India’s cotton production may be slightly’ more than the 29 million bales estimated by the nation’s Cotton Advisory Board last month, Grover said. Farmers have sold 25.5 million bales of cotton since the cotton season that began on Oct. 1, he said. Cotton Corp. may purchase 9.5 million bales by September from farmers at the government-guaranteed prices and plans to sell to mills and exporters, Grover said. It has sold 4.7 million bales already.

印度棉花出口将增多作者：托马斯亚伯拉罕库蒂 3月18日（彭博）——印度是世界上棉花的第二大生产国和出口国。印度大的棉花买家说，印度的棉花销售可能会在6月份回弹，因为面料行业复苏，货币市场疲软将会刺激棉花出货量的增加。 苏巴格罗弗，印度棉花公司的执行董事表示，今年9月的棉花出口总额将达到500万包。去年9月到今年3月的棉花出口额下滑至80万包（每包170公斤），而一年前的数据是600万包。 “布料行业坏的时期已经过去，” 格罗弗今天在孟买接受电话采访时说。“因为棉花纱线和工作装的需求加大，私人布料厂在印度和全球范围内的购买力增多。” 美国农业部3月11日宣布，南非地区棉花供应量的增加可能会拖跨棉花价格。纽约市场由于担心全球经济放缓将导致日用品需求下降，棉花价格在过去的一年里下降了43%。到去年7月，棉花一年的需求总额达到1.111亿包，比上一年度下跌9.5%。 在ICE美国纽约期货交易所棉花期货市场上，棉花09年5月合约报收于每磅43.07美分，上涨0.5个百分点。棉花期货本月以来已经上涨了3.2个百分点。 “全球产量相比去年大幅降低，而印度过去20天的销量有明显好转的趋势，” 格罗弗说，“棉花价格可能上涨到以前淡季的水平，同时印度的出口额会有所增加。” 据美国农业部报道，因为中国和巴基斯坦农作物的生产减少，全球产量2月份估计将达到1.0951亿包，实际可能下降到1.0865亿包。上年度估量生产棉花1.2055亿包。 卢比贬值 格罗弗表示，印度卢比贬值将在今后几个月中促进出口额增加。在3月3日，卢比达到了创纪录的低值。在过去的一年中，卢比贬值20%。由于全球经济衰退加剧，投资者从新兴市场撤出资金，转而投向赢利系数高的行业。 格罗弗说： “卢比每天都在贬值，如果国际棉花价格在接下来两个月内上涨2至3美分，印度将取代中国，成为大的棉花出口国。” 全国棉花咨询委员会上个月估量，印度的棉花产量可能会微超29万包，格罗弗说。棉花的销售旺季从10月1日开始，到目前为止，农民已经出售了2500万包棉花。 印度棉花公司将从9月开始向农民收购棉花，以政府收购棉花的价格，估量收购950万包，格罗弗说，目前它已售出470万包棉花。

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