月日全球棉花日报

5月18日全球棉花日报

Daily worldwide cotton market report May 19, 2019 (Global) http://www.fibre2fashion.com/News/textile-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=72715&page=2

Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 57.55 with a gain of 125 points, the October 09 closed at 59.62 with a gain of 135 points, while the December 09 closed at 60.38 with a gain of 131 points. The cotlook A index declared settled at 60.90 with a loss of 130 points today.

The spot rate of KCA moved once again towards a new high and the settlement declared at Rs. 3750/=, with an increase of Rs. 50/= today. In the domestic market today 1000 bales of Noor Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=, 600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, 400 bales of Haroon Abad sold at Rs. 3700/=, 500 bales of Peer Mahal sold at Rs. 3525/=, 2047 bales of Liaquat Pur sold at Rs. 3600/=, 1600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan at Rs. 3700/=.

Investor buying enthusiasm to the first USDA Supply/Demand forecast for the 09/10 marketing year shifted by mid week after the U.S. April retail sales were released on Wednesday and showed less of a decline than March, but a decline nevertheless. The decline accelerated on Friday after news circulated that the Chinese government was preparing to release between 500,000 and 700,000 tons of cotton reserves for auction as early as next week.

The lack of any renewed U.S. export inquiry coupled with momentum extremes to the upside aided the precipitous decline on Friday. Open interest increased 7,875 contracts on the week's trade to leave 139,150 contracts open as of Thursday's close.

The CFTC reported that as of May 12th, funds were long 16.0% in futures only up from 15.1% long the previous week. Fund longs increased by 4,063 contracts and shorts increased by 1,313 contracts. Total fund longs now total 39,352 contracts versus shorts totaling 17,356 contracts.

U.S. cotton under lean as of May 12th was 563,241 down 346,618 bales. There were 250,865 bales under Form A and 502,974 bales under Form G.

According to IBD, industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which was the smallest decline in six months. "Actual output hit a 10-year low as capacity utilization fell to the lowest on record." The New York manufacturing index in May rose to -4.55 from April's -14.65 and March's record low -38.23.

We still suggest that the general commodity price environment will be dictated by the trend in U.S. equity prices. Fund managers will continue to use the leading economic barometer to forecast the pace of the economic recovery. Stock values have soared 37% from the March 9th low to the May 8th close. The fear is that current stock valuations may be overstating companies' abilities to generate earnings to justify the current P.E. ratios.

This concern was magnified by the weaker than expected report on retail sales last week. The bright spot over the past two quarters is that companies have slashed capital spending by the most since the 1930s and eliminated inventories for six quarters in a row, including the largest liquidation on record last quarter.

The massive reversal down last week would signal the completion of the 10-week rally. While the setback late last seek has down much to correct the heavily overbought conditions, the reversal down caps the rally and points the near term trend down. With the momentum more neutral, it would allow the cotton market to recover some of Friday's decline without reversing the potential for a more significant correction.The market does not seem to have the commercial support under the market to slow the sharp break which was sparked by the extreme overbought condition of the market and from ideas that China will soon release some of their strategic reserves. The general concept that cotton was undervalued compared with other commodity markets was the theme of the recent rally and fund traders were aggressive buyers in the past two months. China's top planning body indicated that they are ready to release some of the reserves but did not give a schedule but traders believe some of the 2.72 million tonnes of cotton could begin to move on their domestic market by the end of the month.

The market pushed sharply lower on the session on Friday and July cotton moved to the lowest level since May 1st as weakness in energy and stock markets and concerns of slower demand after the recent run-up in prices helped spark the selling. Ideas that the market is overbought and a noticeable decline in weekly export sales last week helped to pressure. The new highs for the move on Tuesday with a reversal day combined with the lower close on the week could attract additional technical selling early this week.

The Commitment-of-Traders reports showed the market with a positive tilt as trend-following funds build a more significant net long position but index fund selling is a concern for the bulls. Trend-following funds were net buyers of 4,709 contracts to build a net long of 27,150 contracts. This was in sharp contracts to index fund traders who reduced their net long position by 2,082 contracts to 56,650 contracts. The chart pattern is negative and the market does not seem to have the short-term fundamental news to slow the selling.

Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number.

5月18日全球棉花日报

5月18日纽约棉花期货交易所，0709合约收于每磅57.55美分，上涨125点；1009合约收于59.62美元/磅，涨135点，同时1209合约上涨131点，收盘价在60.38美元/磅。美国棉花展望指数（cotlook A）涨130点，收于每磅60.90美元。

卡拉奇棉花交易所(KCA)棉花现货价格再创新高，价格在每包3750卢比左右，上涨50卢比。就国内市场而言， Noor Pur存库1000包，价格为3800卢比/包；Rahim Yar Khan 售价也为3800，库存600包；Haroon Abad 有400包棉花，价格为3700卢比；Peer Mahal的500包棉花价格在3525卢比；Liaquat Pur有2047包棉花，报价在3600卢比；Rahim Yar Khan的1600包棉花，售价为3700卢比。

投资者购棉积极，因为美国4月零售销售上周三公布后，美国农业部公布了09/10年度一季度棉花供/需报告，报告显示棉花供应量相比3月有小幅降低，不过幅度不显著。中国政府正在打算释放50万至70万吨储备棉，早将于本周开始拍卖，这个信息让上周五的棉花价格大幅下降。

上周美国出口询盘减少。贸易合约本周持仓增加7875，到周四收盘时达到139150。

商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）报告，5月12日，多头合约上涨16.0%，而空头合约只上涨了15.1%。多头合约增加了4063手，空头合约增加了1313手。目前多头合约总的成交额为39352手，而空头合约为17356手。

截止到5月12号，美国棉花看涨合约为563.241收，看跌合约为346.618包。其中250.865来自A，502.974来源G。

根据投资银行的数据，4月份的工业生产下降了0.5个百分点，是近6个月来跌幅低的一个月。“实际产量创下了10年来的低值，因为产能降到了低值。”纽约生产指数5月下降4.55点，4月下降14.65点，3月降低38.23。 我们仍旧建议，一般商品价格环境将直接取决于美国股市的价格走势。基金经理将继续采纳领导经济的晴雨表来预测的经济复苏情况。股票价格从3月9日到5月8日期间飙升37%。令人担忧的是目前的股票市值被夸大，产生的收益率比现在的收益多很多。

上周零售额数据远远低于预测值，这引人关注。在过去的2个季度内，公司削减资本幅度达到20世纪30年代以来的高水平，消减库存，包含大的清算记录。

在连续10周的上涨后， 上周棉花价格大逆转。虽然去年年底的降幅已经下降很多，改正严峻超买的状态，扭转股市下跌的态势，并指出短期内下降的趋势。在目前的情况先，棉花市场虽然从周五的跌势中有所缓解，但是还没有扭转的潜能。

棉花市场似乎并没有得到商业的支持，市场的急剧放缓打破了买方市场引发的极端超买状态，并且中国将完快释放他们的一些战略储备。一般概念棉花相比其他商品来说被低估，并且买家在过去2个月内购买积极，中国目前的局势表示打算抛售储备棉，但是日程未定。但是贸易商信任月底前将有272万吨棉花进入国内市场。

推动棉花市场价格大幅下跌的会议在上周五召开。在近期棉花价格被推动，价格增长迅猛，销量激增后，棉花7月合约降低到至5月1日来的低水平，因为供应短缺，股票市场疲软，需求放缓。上周棉花市场超买对出口销量下降形成压力。本周二可能达到一个新高，由于本周初有更多的技术性抛盘。

交易商承诺报告显示，市场有积极的下降的趋势，底部资金建站一个更重要的净多头资金，但指数基金销售是一个关切的公牛队。从众资金净买家购买了4709手，购买净多头合同27150。这是鲜亮的合同，他们的净多头部资金减少2082手，为56650手。图表模式是消极和市场短期内似乎没有减缓销售的消息。 动量研究趋向高层次偏低，我们应加快行动，打破跌势。市场连续18天下跌显示，中期将连续下跌趋势。这是一个看跌市场。

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